The preferred Cubs lineup arranged by CRC and OBP

The Correlated Run Contribution stat is a stat I invented to help further evaluate how well a hitter is performing.  It helps to use this stat and OBP to help determine who should hit where in a lineup.  For example, a high OBP guy should be hitting 1 or 2 or 9 in the Cubs lineup, to get on base for the 3, 4 and 5 hitters who should have higher averages versus higher OBP’s.

So I have arranged an ideal lineup based on this philosophy.

The two best OBP guys on the team are Bryant and Rizzo, but they are also two of the highest Avg guys as well, and also two of the premier power hitters, so because of the latter you want to make them 3,4,5 hitters, but in Rizzo’s case he is a great base runner as well, which makes more sens to bump him up to the two hole.

The next highest OBP guy is Montero, but we all know he lacks speed and he also hasn’t done this well throughout his career.  But three guys behind him are all at .333 in OBP and that is Castro, Fowler, and Soler.  So it makes it easier now to put Fowler there (leadoff) as his history has shown him to approach .360 OBP and ideal speed, so you place him at leadoff.

That puts us with Fowler and Rizzo in the 1 and 2 holes.

In the three hole you want to start putting more premium on AVG and on power, right now that guy is Bryant, although he hasn’t hit a homer yet, you know that he is the best power bat on the team, so he takes up the three hole.  So right now you have 3 of the top 4 OBP guys taking up the 1, 2, and 3 spots.

In the fourth spot and 5th spot you want more premium on AVG and power again to help drive in those high OBP guys, this is where I put in Soler 4th and Montero 5th (ahead of Castro because he bats left).  And thus Castro is placed 6th.

That leaves a toss up between Russell and Coghlan to play the 7th or 9th spot.  Right now Russell hasn’t proven yet to show he can get on base like Coghlan has so I would switch him to the 7th spot and put Coghlan 9th (Coghlan has better history of getting on base).

So the lineup looks like this:

Dexter Fowler 29 0.263 0.333 0.379 0.712 0.79571
Anthony Rizzo 25 0.313 0.458 0.53 0.988 1.0724
Kris Bryant 23 0.291 0.458 0.382 0.84 0.91964
Jorge Soler 23 0.266 0.333 0.404 0.738 0.82107
Miguel Montero 31 0.298 0.373 0.491 0.864 0.95589
Starlin Castro 25 0.303 0.33 0.374 0.704 0.81332
Chris Coghlan 30 0.214 0.276 0.429 0.705 0.76502
Addison Russell 21 0.233 0.25 0.442 0.692 0.76744

Notice how putting a premium on AVG, in your 2-6 slots you end up getting the best CRC guys planted there by design (Bryant’s CRC will soar once he hits a few homers).  You want more of an emphasis on AVG if you have similar players in OBP to bat in the spots behind your high OBP guys because higher AVG means driving in more runs and puts those guys in more RBI situations.


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