Another New Stat, Contact WAM

I have felt that Wins Above Replacement has a very low starting bar for measuring how valuable a player is (starting at around 47 wins for a team of 0 WAR players) so I have been thinking of a way to improve on that.   With Contact WAM (wins above the mean) I have used what is called a z-score to determine how well a person performs with a contact instance at the plate.

The technical explanation of what it does is taking any contact instance resulting in a safe hit (single, double, triple, and a home run) and using how often a player gets that per at bat.  I then take the league mean (average) of the same per at bat number and get a number for each player of how well they performed above or below the league mean by using z-scores for each contact instance.

Here are the results for the Cubs hitters over 200 at bats this year.

Name Contact WAM
Kris Bryant 3.65
Chris Coghlan 3.35
Anthony Rizzo 3.34
Dexter Fowler 3.00
Chris Denorfia 2.03
Starlin Castro 1.47
Jorge Soler 1.44
Kyle Schwarber 0.92
Addison Russell 0.73
Miguel Montero -0.003

I think this determines how well a hitter performs when they make contact compared to the league average.  This is not adjusted for position or for the league they are in.

In the next few days I plan on messing with this more and coming up with a way to reduce theses numbers to include non-contact instances such as walks and strikeouts, and contact instances resulting in an out.  The goal is to try to start with an 81 win starting point for a team and seeing if this stat can approach a teams actual win result by using z-scores away from the mean.

Right now the total Contact WAM is just under 20, which would put the Cubs at 101 wins (81 +20), which is obviously too high so a correction is in order to include the outs, which I will have to figure out how to do soon.


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